LIVECRAFT powered by Podean
Scenario Planner Business Case Builder

How to Use the Scenario Planner

Quick Start (2 minutes) ▼

  1. Pick your product category from the dropdown. The tool auto-fills industry benchmarks (conversion rate, return rate, platform fees).
  2. Select your Brand Profile. New brands ramp slower. If your brand already has search demand and social presence, pick Established or Major.
  3. Enter your product details: average selling price, COGS, number of SKUs, and units available per month.
  4. Enter your current Amazon monthly revenue (this feeds the halo effect calculation).
  5. Set retainer hours, add any paid campaigns, and pick a GMV curve.
  6. Click "Calculate Business Case" and scroll down to see the full model.

What the Numbers Mean ▼

Break-Even Month
When cumulative revenue exceeds cumulative costs. This is the month the program pays for itself.
Month 12 Run-Rate
Monthly revenue at the one-year mark. This is the steady-state the brand can expect.
12-Month ROI
Total revenue divided by total investment over 12 months. Above 1.0x means profitable.
Month 18 Profit
Cumulative P&L at 18 months. Shows the long-term upside after break-even.
Content Economics
Cost per video (fully loaded vs variable), revenue per video, and net revenue. Based on Month 6 steady-state data.
Steady-State Monthly P&L
What each month looks like once setup costs are paid and the ramp is complete. This is the run-rate story.
Halo Multiplier Scenarios
"What if the halo effect isn't real?" Shows the numbers at 0x, 0.5x, your estimate, and 2x.
Sample ROI
The unit economics of product seeding. How many samples turn into videos, and how many videos turn into transactions.

Advanced Controls ▼

Seasonality
Set your launch month and enable seasonal peaks. A March launch hits Prime Day at Month 5 and BFCM at Month 9. BFCM applies a 2.5x multiplier to that month's GMV.
Brand Profile
Known brands get a ramp multiplier. New/Unknown = 1.0x (standard ramp). Major/Household Name = 2.0x (ramps twice as fast due to existing demand).
Fulfillment Model
Choose how orders ship. Two accurate options: Amazon MCF (by dimensions) calculates the real per-unit fee from your product's L×W×H×weight using Amazon's tier rate card, and TikTok fulfillment (by calculator) takes the per-unit numbers you paste from TikTok's online calculator. The flat-rate options (MCF $8, FBT $5.50, TTS $3, Self-Ship $6) are placeholders kept for backward compatibility with old scenarios — use the calculator-based options for any new pitch.
GMV Realization Curve
Realistic (default) = M1 0%, M2 5%, M3 40%, M4 70%, M5+ 100% of steady-state. Reflects real-world ramp where meaningful GMV doesn't land until month 3. Aggressive uses the v1 phase-progression math (faster ramp, useful as a ceiling). Conservative drags the curve out across nine months for risk-averse pitches.
Override Affiliate Rate
Category default is auto-set but you can override if you have specific commission agreements.
Promo Discount
Launch discount percentage applied to months 1-3. Default is 15%.

Running a Client Pitch ▼

  1. Start with their actual category and product info. Use real numbers.
  2. Set Brand Profile to match their brand (this is the Nathan question: "What's the difference between Gear by Dash and Huggies?").
  3. Run at Realistic first (the default). Show the break-even timeline and monthly P&L trajectory. M1 will read $0, M2 a small trickle, real GMV starts at M3 — match Nathan's "meaningful GMV doesn't start until month 3" framing.
  4. Then show Conservative as the "floor" and Aggressive as the "ceiling."
  5. Enable Seasonality if they're planning a near-term launch. Pick their actual launch month. Show how BFCM or Prime Day accelerates break-even.
  6. Scroll to Halo Multiplier Scenarios. Address the "what if halo isn't real" objection head-on by showing that even at 0x halo, the numbers still work (for beauty/personal care).
  7. Show the Sample ROI tab to explain the creator seeding economics.
  8. End on the Steady-State Monthly P&L card. That's the "this is what it looks like once you're past the ramp" moment.

TikTok Shop Business Case

Model your investment, projected GMV, and break-even timeline

$
Complete cost modeling. This calculates ALL costs - setup, fulfillment, media, creators, platform fees - and shows exactly when you'll break even.

Category

Platform Fee: 6% Avg CVR: 5.5% Return Rate: 15%

Brand Profile

Known brands ramp faster due to existing search demand and trust

Product Info

5
$
$

Current Amazon Sales

$

Your current Amazon revenue (for reference)

50%

Max monthly halo as % of Amazon revenue. 50% = conservative. 100% = moderate. 200% = aggressive (Fenty-level).

Agency & Media Costs

$
$

Higher ramp spend accelerates early traction

$
Retainer
$
Retainer = 60 hrs × $125 = $7,500/mo

Covers ongoing open affiliate maintenance (~20 hrs/mo baseline) + buffer. Paid creator collabs are scoped separately below.

Realistic: M1 0%, M2 5%, M3 40%, M4 70%, M5+ 100% of steady-state. Reflects Nathan's guidance that meaningful GMV doesn't start until month 3. Aggressive uses the old v1 phase progression (faster ramp). Conservative drags the curve out across 9 months.

$

One-time onboarding and setup

$
$
$
% of media spend
% of TikTok GMV
$

Per unit per month (most fulfillment models include this)

Seasonality ▼

No media, creators, or sampling costs during setup

Applies monthly multipliers to GMV projections

Cost Adjustments ▼

0%
20%
15%

Uncheck to show contribution margin only

Affiliate Acquisition ▼

250
65%
40%
$
250
Samples Sent
163
Videos Created (65%)
65
Transactions (40%)
$2,275
GMV Generated
Cost per video$26
Cost per transaction$65
Revenue per sample$9.10
Sample ROI0.54x
Est. Monthly Sampling: $4,250
Break-Even Month 9 Cumulative P&L turns positive
Month 12 Run-Rate -- Monthly revenue at Month 12
12-Month ROI 1.12x Total revenue / total investment
Month 18 Profit -- Cumulative profit by Month 18

Investment vs. Revenue

Monthly Projection

Month Phase Costs TikTok GMV Amazon Halo Total Rev Net P/L Cumulative

Cost Breakdown

Setup (Months 1-2) $23,750

Revenue Sources

TikTok Shop GMV $285,000

Content Economics

Cost Per Video (Fully Loaded) ? --
Cost Per Video (Variable Only) ? --
Revenue Per Video (TikTok Only) ? --
Revenue Per Video (Blended + Halo) ? --
Net Revenue Per Video ? --

Based on Month 6 steady-state data. Videos = monthly samples x 10% content conversion rate.

Steady-State Monthly P&L (Post-Ramp, Excl. Setup)

Monthly Revenue --
Monthly Costs --
Monthly Profit --
Margin --

What each month looks like once setup costs are paid and the ramp is complete. Based on Month 12 projections with 10% MoM growth.

Sensitivity Analysis What if your assumptions are wrong? ▼

Volume Scaling Scenarios

Fixed costs stay constant. Variable costs scale linearly. Response rates held constant (conservative).

Metric Current 2x Scale 3x Scale 5x Scale

Halo Multiplier Scenarios

Every prospect asks: "What if the halo effect isn't real?" Here's what the numbers look like.

Metric No Halo (0x) Conservative (0.5x) Your Estimate Strong (2x)

Break-Even Views Per Video

-- views per video to break even on TikTok alone
-- views per video when you count the Amazon halo

Ready to build your TikTok Shop success story?

Benchmarks powered by official TikTok data

TikTok Seller University TikTok Case Studies (Triquetra, Hotana) Fospha Halo Research Haus Incrementality Studies